Who Will Win the Nomination: Democratic Edition

Not Martin O'Malley, that's for sure.

The race right now is between Senator Sanders, socialist-democratic Senator from Vermont, and Secretary Hillary Clinton, former Senator from New York, former Secretary of State, and former presidential candidate. Who do I think is going to win?

Let's just say I'm not #FeelingTheBern and I don't think this country is #OverTheHillz. Hillary Clinton is outpolling Bernie Sanders by 16 points, according to a recent NBC poll. Recently, Senator Sanders hit a new high, with 33% of Democratic voters saying they would support him. But compare that to the 49% of Democratic voters saying they would support Secretary Clinton, and it's a little less impressive. In Iowa specifically, Bernie is polling at 40%, impressive, but still distant behind Clinton's 51%

But won't Bernie Sanders get more support? He's energizing millennials! If they all come out to vote for him, he can win!

Personally, I think Senator Sanders (I-VT) has his ceiling of support. Yes, he is polling very well in certain states, but not in certain demographics. Namely, Senator Sanders is polling well white white voters, and poorly with black ones. As of October, Senator Sanders had a 13 point lead over Secretary Clinton with white voters in South Carolina. This speaks to his increasingly popular rhetoric, and his ability to motivate the often-ignored progressive white faction of the party.

However, Secretary Clinton was 55 points ahead of Senator Sanders when you looked at just black voters. Nationally, Secretary Clinton is outpolling Senator Sanders 57% to 10% among non-white Democrats. Why is he doing so well in Iowa and New Hampshire, even beating Clinton in NH? Because those states are almost (or over) 90% white.

Overall, in South Carolina, the third primary, Clinton is maintaining a 48 point lead over Senator Sanders. And just because a candidate is polling well in Iowa and New Hampshire doesn't mean they are a shoe-in for the election. Remember Howard Dean?

Barring an outrageous scandal, I predict the nomination will go to Hillary Clinton. And I think she will pick Julian Castro as her running mate, because Marco Rubio will be a tough opponent, especially since he does have legitimate opinions on immigration.

Before I go, a word to my Bernie supporting friends. I hear you. Bernie Sanders is an incredibly compelling candidate. I love his ideas, I appreciate that he's bringing Hillary further to the left on a lot of issues. I think the debate schedule is unfair for him, and there's a possibility the media isn't covering him the way they should. But I'm not supporting Bernie in the primary. I think that the economic issues Bernie stands for are important, but I think Hillary is more experienced on foreign affairs. 

And here's the best kept secret: by some measures, Hillary Clinton is as liberal as Elizabeth Warren, and only slightly more moderate than Bernie Sanders. Secretary Clinton's voting and public statement record make her a very liberal candidate, and she secured a lot of votes from very liberal people in the 2008 election.

No, she's not a socialist. But in my mind, she has the experience to be a great president, paired with progressive ideals that I support. And even if she doesn't win, I'll throw my support behind whichever Democrat does get the nomination, because to me, it's most important to keep the White House blue for at least four more years.

It's Democracy, No One is Happy

If you feel like the government has been on the brink of a shutdown since 2013, you're right! The government has not had a long-term spending and taxation bill since they averted the fiscal cliff, and tonight at midnight, the government is set to run out of money. Predictably, the House plans to pass a small funding bill (known as a stop-gap bill) that will keep the lights on until December 22nd.

But this time is different! Congress is nearing the end of negotiations on the biggest and broadest tax and spending bill since the fiscal cliff debacle of 2013.

So what does this 1.1 trillion dollar budget deal mean for you? Regardless of your political party, you're probably happy, but not completely satisfied. As both Speaker Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Minority Leader Reid (D-NV) have said, in a democracy, no one gets exactly what they want, but this deal is as good as any.

If you're a hardline conservative Republican, you're probably upset because this bill doesn't contain any language to stop Syrian and Iraqi refugees from coming into the country. If you're a liberal democrat, you're maybe upset because the bill will end a 40-year ban on exporting US oil. The bill suspends certain taxes in the Affordable Care Act, including the Cadillac tax, but it also reauthorizes the Zadroga Act, which helps provide healthcare to 9/11 First Responders

There's nothing in the bill that will defund Planned Parenthood, or repeal Obamacare, and the President has voiced his support for the bill. Despite opposition from the more conservative members of the House, who could refuse to support the bill because it doesn't staunch the flow of refugees, the bill is expected to pass the house. Even though Minority Leader Pelosi (D-CA) has spoken out in opposition to certain parts of the bill, House Democrats are expected to support it

Once the bill passes, the government will be funded through September of 2016, giving both parties time to focus on actually passing legislation that will actually help Americans. Or, more likely, focusing their energies on the upcoming presidential election, which is still a long 11 months away.

Who Will Win the Nomination: Republican Edition!

The Answer May Surprise You!

Fears over Trump-O-Mania are, in my opinion, unfounded. Is the Donald doing well in the polls? Sure, though he is slipping, as evidenced by a recent poll that put Ted Cruz ahead of him in Iowa. A poll that was interestingly followed by one of the most outlandish statements yet from Mr. Golden Hair, putting him back in the news, and likely, back at the top of the polls. But these polls, based on name recognition, are not everything.

As of November, the Donald was polling at 29%, indisputably the highest percentage in the Republican field. The closest candidate is Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who is polling at 15%. A lead that big does make it appear that the Donald is a shoe-in for the Republican nomination.

Not so fast! Political Nerd Icon Ned Silver points out that this number only takes into account Republicans, not Independent or Democratic voters. Trump doesn't have 29% of Americans on his side, he has 29% of self-identified Republicans on his side

With 29% of voters identifying as Independents, and only 25% of eligible voters identifying as Republicans, Mr. Celebrity Apprentice has a much smaller pool of support than the media would have you believe. 29% of 25% is only 6-8% of the general population, or as my favorite statistician Nate Silver points out, "the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.

Donald "It's Gonna be Huge" Trump's lead falls apart even more when you consider his favorables versus his unfavorables. Basically, how many people like Trump, minus how many people think he's a hot head with no political experience and fake hair.

Let's say 29% of Republicans say they would vote for Trump. Subtract from that the documented 26% of Republicans who say they would never vote for Trump. Suddenly, the Donald is polling at 3%, and not at all a danger of taking the Republican nomination, especially when he is compared against other candidates.

Take Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) for example. As of December 2nd, Senator Rubio had 66% favorability, and with only 8% of people viewing him unfavorably. This gives Senator Rubio a net favorability rating of 58%. Who is second behind Rubio? Not Donald "Only 3% Would Elect Me" Trump, but Senator Cruz, with 56% favorability.

If I was a betting woman, I'd put my hard-earned money on Senator Rubio taking the nomination. Why Rubio and not Cruz, who has a similar rating and may pull support from evangelicals? Apparently, Ted Cruz is an extremely unlikeable man, as evidenced by a recent quote from his college roommate.

"And, you know, I want to be clear, because Ted Cruz is a nightmare of a human being. I have plenty of problems with his politics, but truthfully his personality is so awful that 99% of why I hate him is just his personality. If he agreed with me on every issue, I would hate him only one percent less."

Yikes. I'm going to go out on a limb, and on the record to say, I predict Rubio will win the Republican Presidential nomination, and that he will pick Scott Walker as his running mate. Check back when the long primary nightmare is over, and see if I'm right!

Actions Speak Louder than Prayers

The actions following a mass shooting seem chillingly predictable now. Representatives and Senators take to Twitter to express their thoughts and prayers, President Obama holds a press conference saying that he can't keep holding press conferences after tragic events like this, the Democrats blame guns, the Republicans blame the mentally ill. A week later, the news media have moved on. Another mass shooting. Repeat.

If the root of these mass shootings is mentally ill people having access to guns, and using those guns to murder people, there are things that can be done. Republicans halting their endless campaign to repeal the Affordable Care Act would be a good place to start. Whether Republicans like it or not, Obamacare will help the mentally ill. One part of Obamacare allows mentally ill people to access treatment, without being denied health insurance for a pre-exisiting health condition. The Medicaid expansion, and ability to find affordable insurance, allows people living with mental illness who are too sick to work to have access to quality healthcare. If Republicans want to help the mentally ill, the easiest thing for them to do is not continue their efforts to roll back Obamacare.

But that's not what the Republicans are doing. If anything, they want to make it harder for people to access healthcare. And it's telling that the only time Republican's talk about helping the mentally ill is after a mass shooting.

On the other side of the aisle, the Democrats have been proposing legislation to curb access to guns. Congresswoman Velazquez (D-NY) and Congressman Jeffries (D-NY) introduced a bill on October 26, 2015. The bill aims to reduce gun violence by creating a tracking system for firearms, and putting a tax on guns. This tax will be used to do what the Republicans keep talking about, and create a mental health trust fund, to provide care for mentally ill people. 

Another bill, proposed in January of 2015 by Representative Robin Kelly, (D-IL) would amend the Brady Act, which mandates that licensed sellers of guns conduct background checks, to prevent violent criminals from having firearms. This particular bill would make anyone convicted of a stalking offense unable to own a gun, among other violent offenses. Finally, Congressman Michael Honda (D-CA) introduced a bill in early November of 2015 to allocate money for researching gun violence, something that isn't being funded right now

None of these bills have made it farther than a committee in the House of Representatives, and not one has been voted on. This is because Republican leadership in the House and Senate refuses to bring bills like these up for a vote. Even if these bills were voted on, they would likely fail, as most Republicans refuse to do anything to limit gun ownership in this country.

Gun control may not eliminate mass shootings all together, but it's as good a place as any to start. The Democrats are trying to do something, with the laws they have proposed. The Republicans are blocking them at every turn, and proposing none of their own solutions. The longer they continue their inaction, the more blood they will have on their hands.

No Room at the Inn

House and Senate Republicans want to send a message to Syrian refugees that there's "no room at the inn" this Christmas season, and they want to attach that message to a bill to keep the government running.

Congress needs to pass a funding bill by December 11th to avoid another government shutdown. With many representatives flying back to their districts over the weekend, it doesn't leave too many legislative days to negotiate, and pass a budget.

It would seem that in these dire times, racing against the clock, and with the season of giving upon us, Republicans and Democrats would put aside partisan differences and focus on passing a budget that would, if not fund the government through the year, at least keep it afloat for more than 2 months.

Of course, that's not what is happening.

In fact, just the opposite is occurring, with politicians attaching policy riders to the bill. That means that within a bill that provides necessary funds for government agencies are provisions about monitoring Syrian and Iraqi refugees, or preventing them from entering the country all together, loosen campaign finance regulations, or even defund Planned Parenthood

Any riders attached, especially regarding the screening process for Syrian refugees, all but ensures a veto from President Obama. President Obama has stated that the United States "can welcome refugees who are desperately seeking safety and ensure our own security. We can and must do both" and called the idea of a religious test and only admitting Christian refugees, "not American."

This puts Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) in a tough position, one that Former Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) was in not too long ago. Speaker Ryan can carry out the demands of the more extreme wing of his party, and send a bill to the President that includes a rider preventing Syrian refugees from coming into the country. President Obama would likely veto it, to say nothing of whether or not it would pass the Senate, which would plunge the country into another unpopular government shutdown.

Or, Speaker Ryan can pass a clean funding bill, keeping the government running for another couple months, but earning the ire of the right-wing of his party. This was the spot Speaker Boehner was in again and again, until he stepped down earlier this year, courting chaos when few Republicans were willing to put themselves in the same dilemma.

As December 11th draws nearer, one hopes that both parties will put good governance above partisanship, and make sure the government is funded, and thousands of government workers don't miss out on their paychecks right at the beginning of shopping season!