Who's To Blame?

The government hasn’t even shutdown yet, and already many Republicans are blaming the Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

           

Now you can fault Senator Reid for some things. He doesn’t always stand up to the Republicans the way he should and he is more boring than the teacher in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. But this shutdown cannot be blamed on him, or any Democrat.

Anyone want to go to conference? Anyone? Anyone?

The shutdown is not possible because the government is running out of money (though that may happen soon). Rather, it is because there is no Federal budget yet, though this is not for lack of trying. The Senate passed a budget on March 23^rd[1]  and the House passed a budget on March 21^st. However, the Senate did not agree to the House's budget, and the House rejected the Senate's plan.[2]

The problem is not that no budget has been proposed, the problem is no budget has been agreed to. The House and the Senate have to send the same bill to the president to sign. When the House and Senate pass different versions of the same bill,  members of the two houses of Congress will start a conference committee to work out the differences in a bill. A conference committee is a special group of Senators and Representatives appointed by their parties, usually the chairs and ranking members of relevant committees. In this case, senior members of House and Senate budget committees would likely make up a conference committee. Their job is to try to create a budget plan that both houses can agree on.[3] 

           

Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), the chair of the Senate Budget Committee, has been calling for a conference committee on the Budget since the House and Senate passed their respective bills. She has been joined by many other Democratic Senators, and some Republicans, like Senator McCain (R-AZ).[4] At this point, a conference committee is the only way Congress will pass a budget, but efforts to create a conference committee are being blocked by Republicans in the Senate and the House.[5]

Had Congress gone to conference in March, when these different budget bills were passed, our country may not be facing a shutdown. Right now, it is Senator Reid who refuses to negotiate, but if Republicans in the House and the Senate had not refused to negotiate for upwards of five months, this last minute legislating would not be necessary.

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[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/24/us/politics/senate-passes-3-7-trillion-budget-its-first-in-4-years.html

[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/us/politics/house-passes-plan-to-avert-federal-shutdown.html?hpw&_r=0

[3] http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/305141-isnt-it-about-time-for-a-budget-conference

[4] http://www.thenewstribune.com/2013/08/02/2709969/murray-is-right-congress-must.html

[5] http://www.thenewstribune.com/2013/08/02/2709969/murray-is-right-congress-must.html

Countdown to Shutdown

Hang onto your pants, because our country appears to be on the fast track to a shutdown.

            

Yesterday, the Senate passed their version of the appropriations bill, 54-44.[1] The bill included funding for Obamacare, and was sent back to the House. Just today, the House stated that they planned to include provisions in the appropriations bill that would delay the implementation of Obamacare for a year and eliminate the medical devices tax that is a part of Obamacare.[2] Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) made it lear that the Senate would not accept these amendments to the bill.[3] The options now are for one side to cave, for both sides to work for a compromise, or for the government to shutdown.

Given our current political climate, the shutdown seems inevitable.

But why do both sides refuse to negotiate? The Democrats will not accept a one-year delay on Obamacare. This would give Republicans the encouragement to push for more delays, potentially delaying the implementation of the law until there is a Republican president who would not veto a repeal. In addition, the Democrats believe that if people participate in Obamacare, and see what it can do, they will like it and not want to give it up, so they have been waiting for the October 1^st implementation deadline. It’s doubtful that they would vote for a delay when they are so close to opening the health insurance exchange.[4] Many Republicans, on the other hand, will accept nothing less than the defunding of Obamacare, and are uninterested in compromise.

The Senate will likely table the new House Bill on Sunday, leaving few other options besides a shutdown.[5] If there is a deal, it will likely be struck in the late hours of Monday, but at this point even that seems unlikely.

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[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/us/politics/senate-is-expected-to-approve-budget-bill.html

[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/us/politics/budget-talks-government-shutdown.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

[3] http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/government-shutdown-senate-democrats-house-cr-97500.html

[4] http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/why-delaying-obamacare-could-ultimately-do-as-much-damage-as-defunding-20130927?mrefid=site_search

[5] http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/government-shutdown-senate-democrats-house-cr-97500.html

Funding and Filibusters

Another Texan is monopolizing the Senate floor, but this time it isn’t a filibuster and I’m not inspired.

Starting on Tuesday afternoon, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) made a 21-hour speech against Obamacare, but it wasn’t a filibuster. It was long, he wasn’t allowed to sit or leave the floor, and he was passionate. So why is this not a filibuster?

Technically, Senator Cruz was not interfering with the Senate’s business. There was a vote at 1pm today to begin debate on the continuing resolution the House passed, and Ted Cruz had the floor until then. It would only be a filibuster if he had 41 Senators who would refuse to vote to proceed to debate.[1] Majority Leader Reid had the 60 votes he needed to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to debate of the continuing resolution, so Ted Cruz’s speech was merely grandstanding.[2]

Cloture is a motion to end debate on a topic and needs the support of 60 Senators to pass. This particular cloture vote was used to signify that Senators wanted to proceed to debating the bill the House had passed.[3] Basically, the Senate had to vote to end debate before they could have a debate.

After Senator Cruz’s marathon speech, the Senate voted to proceed to debate 100-0. [4] Not only did Senator Cruz not prevent the Senate from voting to begin the debate, he voted to begin debate on the measure. The Senate now has 30 hours to debate the continuing resolution that will fund the government until mid-December before they vote on it.[5] It is likely that the Democratic-majority Senate will strip the provision that defunds Obamacare. This means the bill will be sent back to the House for a final vote. It’s beginning to look like the vote to fund our government for another month and a half will come down to the wire.

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[1] http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/don-t-call-it-a-filibuster-20130924

[2] http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/don-t-call-it-a-filibuster-20130924

[3] http://democrats.senate.gov/2013/09/25/roll-call-vote-on-cloture-on-mtp-to-h-j-res-59-continuing-resolution/

[4] http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=113&session=1&vote=00205

[5] http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-ted-cruz-ends-his-talkathon/2013/09/25/4fcf8b66-25f3-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop

Budget Plans and Debt Limits

Only hours after I published the post about the government shut down, the House passed its budget plan. This came as a surprise for two reasons, the first because I didn’t think the House would ever pass any sort of budget until the last minute, and the second because I honestly did not realize the House did anything on a Friday.

So what exactly did the House pass? It’s a bill that outlining how much the government will spend in the coming fiscal year, but it also includes a provision to defund Obamacare. The bill passed the House 230-189, along party lines.[1] While the bill passed in the House, it is very unlikely that it will pass the Senate unchanged, as the Senate is controlled by Democrats. Most people think that the Senate will pass a similar version of the bill, but include spending for Obamacare, and send it back to the House. However, given how slowly the Senate can move, it is likely that the bill will be sent back to the House right before the shutdown deadline of October 1^st.[2] It’s likely that a decision on a budget will come down to the wire.

And even if a budget is passed on time, and the government does not shut down, our country is not out of the woods. In a few weeks, the United States will hit our debt ceiling, and unless Congress raises the debt ceiling, the nation will default on our debts.[3] Both President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner refuse to negotiate, with the President agreeing to nothing but raising the debt ceiling, and the Speaker unwilling to do that.

A shutdown would be harmful to our country, but defaulting on our debts would be worse, and people in the country and around the world would lose faith in our “Treasury debt, widely seen as the safest investment possible.”[4] Failing to raise the debt limit could put the country in another economic crisis, similar to the recession we are still climbing out of.[5] The debt limit has been raised 78 times since 1960, and 49 of those have been under Republican presidents.[6] Raising the debt limit, while not a sustainable solution to the growing problem of our national debt, is currently the best option. For the time being, not raising the debt limit would cause more trouble than the debt would.

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[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/21/us/politics/house-spending-bill.html?_r=0

[2] http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57603988/house-sets-stage-for-budget-standoff-with-government-funding-vote/

[3] http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-passes-gop-spending-plan-that-defunds-obamacare/2013/09/20/4019117c-21fe-11e3-b73c-aab60bf735d0_story.html

[4] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/21/us/politics/house-spending-bill.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0

[5] http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/pages/debtlimit.aspx

[6] http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/pages/debtlimit.aspx

The Government Shutdown

It’s almost October, and that means the leaves are changing colors, the pumpkin spice latte is back, and the country once again finds itself on the brink of a possible government shutdown.

If you know nothing about the government shutdown, you’re not alone! Until two weeks ago, I thought a government shutdown meant that the police would stop working, firefighters would let houses burn down and public schools would close. That is not the case. A government shutdown does not mean the country stops working.  However, it does mean that the government stops providing many non-essential services. The Office of Management and Budget decides which government services would stop in a shutdown. Generally, agencies continue to operate in a shutdown if they are essential to protect our nation or the safety and life of the people in it. Our military would continue to fight overseas, doctors and nurses would continue to report to public hospitals, border patrol would keep going to work on the border, and our prisons would be staffed.[1]

Now if all of America’s essential services continued to run, would a shutdown really be that bad? As the daughter of a federal employee, I say yes. A government shutdown means my father, along with hundreds of thousands of other people employed by the government would go without pay for the duration of the shutdown.[2] The government shutdown in 1995-1996 lasted 28 days, so there is the potential that my father, and many other people like him, could go without pay for close to a month.

And while Social Security checks are considered a mandatory service and would be able sent out in a government shutdown, the Social Security Administration might not be able to pay people to process and send out the checks, so there is the possibility that people would go without their Social Security money.[3] In addition, the government will not be able to process any applications for student loans during a shutdown, which will negatively affect students around the country.[4]

Finally, the Congressional Research Service, a non-partisan think tank in Congress estimated that the two shutdowns in 1995 and 1996 cost the government close to 1.4 billion dollars.[5] In a fight over spending and debt, it seems shocking that elected officials would even consider such a costly move.

So why is a government shutdown even being considered as a possibility? There is a committed group of Republicans in the House and the Senate who are refusing to vote for any budget that funds Obamacare. Republicans in the House will not pass the Senate budget, which contains no provision to defund Obamacare. Conversely, the democratically controlled Senate will not pass any budget the House passes, because they do not want to pass a budget with dramatic cuts to social services.[6]

This gridlock might be a surmountable obstacle, but Congress is running out of time to act. The budget needs to be passed by October 1^st, or the country could face a government shutdown.

If you think you might not be affected by a government shutdown, I urge you to think again. Most of us have a relative on Social Security. I’m sure many of us take out student loans, and some of us have parents who are federal employees. The government shutdown may not affect you personally, but it could negatively affect your relatives, your friends and your peers. And if you still need a reason to be angry about a shutdown, there is the potential that Congress would receive their paychecks, even as thousands of Americans are furloughed.[7] Changing Congressional pay takes legislation, and while a bill that stops pay for elected officials in a shutdown has passed in the Senate, the House has not passed it yet.[8]

There is no reason our elected officials should be paid if they force thousands of Americans to take an undetermined amount of unpaid leave. These people were not elected to destroy the government, they were elected to run it. If the idea of a shutdown enrages you, I urge you to call your Representative or Senator and make your voice heard. Remind them who elected them, and hopefully encourage them to act.

SOURCES:

[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/frequently-asked-questions-about-a-government-shutdown/2011/04/01/AF4WPIQC_story_1.html

[2] http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/16/news/economy/government-shutdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[3] http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/16/news/economy/government-shutdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[4] http://www.usnews.com/news/slideshows/10-effects-of-a-federal-government-shutdown/10

[5] http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/16/news/economy/government-shutdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[6] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/09/18/5-reasons-why-a-government-shutdown-is-likely-coming/

[7] http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/07/will-members-of-congress-get-paid-in-a-shutdown/

[8] http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/07/will-members-of-congress-get-paid-in-a-shutdown/