Iowa and New Hampshire: Not as Important as You Think

New Hampshire has a rich history, beautiful natural scenery, and some of the best apple cider I have ever tasted. And I'm so incredibly lucky that I do not currently live there.

Even though I love a good leaf-peeping

With primary season fast approaching, living in Iowa or New Hampshire must be like living inside of the CNN Situation Room. Candidates are ramping up their political ads, increasing the number of door-to-door canvassers who go out and try to convince voters, and probably calling every landline phone at all hours of the day. What makes these two states important enough to suck up the news cycle for months leading up to their primaries (or caucus, in the case of Iowa)?

Nor is it as predictive as a primary, but that's a post for another day

Let's start with how important these two states are numerically. To understand the states' importance, we have to look at how each party picks their nominee. Both parties give states a certain amount of delegates, based on the state's population, as well as at large delegates, often assigned based on how a state has voted in the past. Like the electoral college, more populous states have more delegates.

The Republican Party starts by giving each state three Republican National Committee delegates, and ten at-large delegates. Before even factoring in population, each state has 13 delegates, plus a bonus of at-large delegates if the state has reliably voted Republican in past elections . For example, Texas has a bonus of 34 at-large delegates, because it is a reliably Republican state. New York, on the other hand, has a bonus of 1 at-large delegate, since it is not.

From there, the Republican party assigns three delegates to each Congressional district in the state. This is where delegates are assigned based on population. That means a state like California has 159 delegates at the Congressional level, while a less populous state (looking at you Wyoming) has 3 delegates, since Wyoming only has one Congressional district.

Most populous city in Wyoming

In total, the Republican party has 2,472 delegates. And states award delegates either through a winner take all system (the person with 51% gets all the delegates in South Dakota) or a proportional system, where delegates are split between the candidates (mandated for all states who have a primary before March 14).

The Democratic Party has a very similar system. There are a total of 4,764 Democratic delegates, both delegates who are committed to supporting whichever candidate wins their state, and "super-delegates," mostly elected officials, who can support whoever they choose. Over 4,000 of the Democratic party delegates are not super-delegates, and are awarded based on population. Just like the Republican system, this means that Florida has 246 delegates, and nearby Mississippi only has 41.

So now that we know how the party picks a candidate, how important are Iowa and New Hampshire numerically?

Turns out, not much. In the Republican Party, New Hampshire actually has fewer delegates than New Mexico, and Iowa has fewer than it's neighboring state of Nebraska. For the Democrats, New Hampshire is still trailing New Mexico in numerical delegates, and Minnesota is a better state for a candidate to win than Iowa. A candidate doesn't necessarily need these two states to win the nomination.

And yet these states are still crucial to a good campaign. Conventional wisdom says that winning Iowa or New Hampshire gives a candidate momentum to win other, more numerically important states. But the winners of Iowa and New Hampshire don't always go on to win the nomination. In 2012, Rick Santorum won Iowa. In 2008, it was Mike Huckabee. President Obama won Iowa in 2008, but lost New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton. In the past two primaries, no nominee has won both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Why are these states important? Mostly because they're first, and they show the trajectory the election might take. But neither state is representative of America. Iowa and New Hampshire are over 90% white, when the United States as a whole is closer to 70% white. So don't put all your eggs in the basket of New Hampshire, because although it's state government is the third largest legislature in the English speaking world, right behind Congress and the House of Parliament, it doesn't speak or represent the whole country and all its diversity.

Tickets to the Gun Show

"We all believe in the First Amendment, the guarantee of free speech, but we accept that you can’t yell “fire” in a theater. We understand there are some constraints on our freedom in order to protect innocent people."

As President Obama reminded everyone when he spoke about the executive actions he was taking on gun safety, he taught Constitutional law. His new executive orders on guns weren't created to eliminate the 2nd Amendment, but to regulate it, the way we regulate all the other Amendments (except the 3rd, I don't think anyone has ever brought a challenge to the 3rd Amendment).

The dark horse Amendment

The President's most prominent step with these recent executive actions was to expand background checks on gun sales. Before these executive actions, only federally licensed firearm dealers were required to conduct background checks after they sold a gun. But dangerous people were still getting guns because not everyone selling guns is federally licensed.

Anyone engaged in the business of selling firearms has to obtain a federal license, but there are loopholes. People selling from their "personal collections" don't need to be licensed to sell guns. This loophole allows an uncle to sell a shotgun to his nephew, or a wife to sell off her husband's gun collection, without obtaining a license.

As with many legal loopholes, the definition of a "personal collection" has widened over time. Today, people sell from their ever-increasing "personal collections" at gun shows, or other private events. These gun dealer hobbyists are not required to be federally licensed, and thus, are not required to conduct a background check on anyone they sell a gun to. And who they sell too is much broader than people in their family, looking for a second hand shotgun.

This is not to say that every person who sells guns at a gun show, or other private event, is unlicensed and not conducting background checks. Far from it. There are many responsible gun salesmen and hobbyists who have obtained a license and do their due diligence conducting background checks on anyone they sell a gun to. Some studies find that as few as 20% of guns are sold without background checks.

But in the age of gun sales over the internet, and unlicensed dealers at gun shows that anyone can walk into, even 20% of sales going without a background check is too high. President Obama's executive orders are the first step in regulating the 2nd Amendment to ensure public safety and freedom. But are they legal?

It's up to the courts. The President's executive orders will face challenges from pro-gun groups who are skeptical of closing the private sale loophole.  But the administration hasn't set any specific quota or threshold for how many guns a person would need to sell to qualify as a gun dealer who would need to be licensed.

Ultimately, it will be for the courts to decide if the President has overstepped his bounds, but the purposeful vagueness of the executive orders makes it likely they will stand up in court, good news for all of us who want to be able to go to the movies/elementary school/bar/small business/restaurant/public road/our own homes/government buildings in peace.

Your Top 6 Primary Questions Answered!

Recently, I was handed a political question I couldn't answer. My friend from St. Louis wanted to know what the difference was between a Presidential Preference Primary (the Missouri one is held in early March) and a Primary (another Missouri primary is held in August). The website was unhelpful, and it wasn't clear when my friend should send in her absentee ballot.

And that's not the only primary question I've been stumped by. What is the difference between a primary and a caucus? When are the primaries? Which primaries, can you vote it? I did some research, so you don't have to, and I'm going to break it down for you, Buzzfeed-listicle style (no copyright infringement intended)!

What is a primary?

A primary is an nominating contest between members of the same party, to decide who will represent the party in a general election. So in a primary, Democrats are running against Democrats, Republicans are running against Republicans, and Gary Johnson is running against time.

Primaries are very important leading up to the presidential election, and important at the state level as well. In a very liberal or conservative city or state, the primary determines who is going to win the general election. For example, a Republican would never win an election in the Village in New York City, so whichever Democrat wins the primary there is the person who will be elected.

What is a caucus?

"Caucus, caucus, caucus!"

Good question! I work in government, and recently had a discussion with my co-workers where we realized none of us actually knew what a caucus was. A caucus is the same premise as a primary, but instead of people showing up to a high school gym and casting a secret ballot, registered voters from each party show up to a high school gym and discuss the candidates up for election and the issues. Each precinct chooses delegates, or representatives, who will represent the precinct at the county level

To further complicate the process, in Iowa, the precinct delegates discuss again at the county level. Each county then chooses delegates to represent the county, and the county's choice for nominee at the state level. Finally, in June, all the state level delegates get together, and the world finally figures out who won the Iowa vote for the primary

So even though the Iowa caucus is the first event of the presidential election, the real winner isn't declared until June, making New Hampshire, with its February 9th statewide primary, the real first election.
  

How do I vote in the primary?

"No, I want to vote for Obama! It's time for a change!"

The best way to find information about how and when to register to vote, or apply for an absentee ballot, is to go to your state's Department of State website. Unlike the Federal Secretary of State (shout out to my boy J. Kerry), state Secretary's of State mostly handle voting. If that doesn't work, try finding the Board of Elections in your state for more information.

When are the primaries?

Glad you asked!

Which primaries can I vote in?

Depends on which party you're registered as, and where you live. There are three different types of primaries, open, closed, and semi-closed.

In an open primary, anyone, regardless of party affiliation, can vote in whichever primary they want. That means, Democrats can vote in Republican primaries, independents can vote in Democratic primaries, etc. Of course, no one can vote in more than one primary. One person, one vote after all.

In a semi-closed primary, those registered to vote in one party can only vote in their party's primary, but independent voters can vote in whichever primary they want

In a closed primary, registered voters can only vote in the party they are registered in, and independents can't vote in primaries at all. So if you want to vote in the primary, before you register to vote, you should figure out what type of primary your state holds. For example, it doesn't make sense to register as an independent in New York, because New York has a closed primary, so registering yourself as an independent prevents you from participating in any primary

Kang and Kodos, reminding you to be smart about your vote this year.

Check out a detailed map here to see if you need to change your voter registration.

What is the difference between a presidential preference primary, and a primary?

Homer, running at the state level.

Finally, back to the question that sparked it all. To get the answer to this, I had to email the Missouri Secretary of State's office, a last resort I recommend all of you take advantage of. Within 24 hours, Mark had emailed me back, explaining that:

"The presidential preference primary will be held March 15, 2016 and the August primary will be held on August 2, 2016. The presidential preference primary is held to choose party nominees for U.S. president, and the August primary is held to elect all other party nominees (state and county offices, for example).

As these are two separate elections, you would need to request two separate absentee ballots. "

Shout out to Mark for that solid bit of info, and his dedication to his job. Thank your government workers everyone. We're people too.

This blog post is already pretty long, but I wanted to include a plea at the end to vote in your state, as well as presidential primaries. If they are held on two different days, please make sure to vote in both! A lot of important policy is made at the state level, and oftentimes, that is when young people are least represented, simply because there isn't enough news coverage about state and local elections. But sometimes, it's those elections that are the most influential, and since they're on a smaller scale, the elections where your vote counts more.

This Presidential Election Season, give yourself the privilege of knowing who your state representatives are, now that you know everything about how to vote in a primary!